Predicting Kenyan Olympic Running Performance: Youth Transition, Gender, Statusand Venue

Abstract

This study investigated the relationship between Kenyan youth and senior Olympic athletes and the predictive influence of gender, status, and competition venue on performance in middle- and long-distance events. Addressing existing gaps regarding youth-to-senior progression and contextual factors in Kenyan athletics, historical data from Olympic results (2010-2020 Youth; 2012-2020 Senior Games) for 116 Kenyan athletes were analyzed. Descriptive analysis revealed a zero percent conversion rate from youth to senior Olympic participation, highlighting a significant pathway discontinuity. Linear regression showed gender significantly predicted performance across all events (p<.001), explaining up to 92% (5000m) and 97% (10000m) of variance, with notable performance time differences (e.g., 87.24s in 5000m, 222.59s in 10000m) linked to gender. Competitive venue significantly influenced long-distance events only, accounting for up to 96% of marathon variance, with performance times decreasing by 2.33s. Findings recommend stakeholders explore factors limiting youth-to-senior transition.